Point probabilistic prediction of precipitation and quantitative precipitation forecast in Western Himalayas

Probabilistic forecast of daily areal precipitation focusing on extreme events

A dynamical downscaling scheme is usually used to provide a short range flood forecasting system with highresolved precipitation fields. Unfortunately, a single forecast of this scheme has a high uncertainty concerning intensity and location especially during extreme events. Alternatively, statistical downscaling techniques like the analogue method can be used which can supply a probabilistic f...

Probabilistic high-resolution forecast of heavy precipitation over Central Europe

Abstract. The limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS has been running operationally at ECMWF since November 2002. Five runs of the non-hydrostatic limited-area model Lokal Modell (LM) are available every day, nested on five selected members of three consecutive 12-h lagged ECMWF global ensembles. The limited-area ensemble forecasts range up to 120 h and LM-based probabilistic produc...

A simple model for prediction of annual precipitation in the southern and western provinces of I.R.Iran

Decoupling of erosion and precipitation in the Himalayas.

The hypothesis that abrupt spatial gradients in erosion can cause high strain rates in active orogens has been supported by numerical models that couple erosional processes with lithospheric deformation via gravitational feedbacks. Most such models invoke a 'stream-power' rule, in which either increased discharge or steeper channel slopes cause higher erosion rates. Spatial variations in precip...

Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting using a Two-Stage Spatial Model

Short-range forecasts of precipitation fields are required in a wealth of agricultural, hydrological, ecological and other applications. Forecasts from numerical weather prediction models are often biased and do not provide uncertainty information. Here we present a postprocessing technique for such numerical forecasts that produces correlated probabilistic forecasts of precipitation accumulati...